Forecasting Implied Volatility Surfaces

Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces

The prices of index options at a given date are usually represented via the corresponding implied volatility surface, presenting skew/smile features and term structure which several models have attempted to reproduce. However, the implied volatility surface also changes dynamically over time in a way that is not taken into account by current modelling approaches, giving rise to ‘Vega’ risk in o...

Stochastic Models of Implied Volatility Surfaces

We propose a market-based approach to the modelling of implied volatility, in which the implied volatility surface is directly used as the state variable to describe the joint evolution of market prices of options and their underlying asset. We model the evolution of an implied volatility surface by representing it as a randomly fluctuating surface driven by a finite number of orthogonal random...

Selecting the Best Forecasting-Implied Volatility Model Using Genetic Programming

The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility’s forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming’s ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneynes...

Simulation of Implied Volatility Surfaces via Tangent Lévy Models

In this paper, we implement and test a market-based model for European-type options, based on the tangent Lévy models proposed in [4] and [3]. As a result, we obtain a method for generating Monte Carlo samples of future paths of implied volatility surfaces. These paths and the surfaces themselves are free of arbitrage, and are constructed in a way that is consistent with the past and present va...

Deformation of Implied Volatility Surfaces: An Empirical Analysis